The arrival of vaccines and a burgeoning economic recovery have boosted the outlook for financial executives, whose confidence has moved closer to pre-pandemic levels in the AICPA survey of the economic outlook for business and industry in the United States. trimester.

The survey’s CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI) rose six points to 68 out of 100, spurred in part by optimism among financial policymakers about revenues and profits for the next 12 months. The nine-component index peaked at 81 in the first quarter of 2018 and had remained in the 1970s until the second quarter of last year, when it fell from 76 to 38. A reading above 50 reflects positive sentiment .

This quarter is investigation, conducted in February, included 693 responses from CPA decision makers such as CFOs, CEOs and controllers. This is the third consecutive quarter in which sentiment has improved.

About 47% of those polled were optimistic about the year ahead for the U.S. economy, and 27% said their expectations were neutral. These were the highest figures in a year, approaching the figures seen in 2018 and 2019.

“I think it’s just going to keep growing. I have a lot of activity in my pipeline, ”said Carolyn Chasteen, CPA, CGMA, owner of Velosio Denver. The company sells and supports Microsoft enterprise software for home construction companies.

Velosio Denver has experienced “astronomical” growth amid the pandemic housing boom, Chasteen said. The company typically performs a few software implementations per year. He is now working on nine simultaneously, as clients expand their businesses.

“Everyone wants to leave town and move into a house,” she said.

Chasteen expects housing markets to stay warm as employees move into remote working. Indeed, 21% of those surveyed said their business plans to reduce their office footprint, even though 58% expected their business to grow.

But expectations differed significantly from sector to sector as the outbreak continued to limit public activities and travel.

“I guess I’m more pessimistic than anything else,” said Holly Maloney, CPA, CGMA, chief financial officer of an event rental company in Canton, Ohio.

The company, Canton Chair Rental, saw a 50% drop in gross revenue in 2020. With the cancellation of weddings and trade shows, the company has survived by renting tents to hospitals and other facilities. requiring outside facilities, and with a loan from the U.S. Paycheck Protection Program.

Now Maloney fears the pandemic will close events again throughout the next busy season.

“Our events may not come back totally. There is no more income that we have to cash in next winter, ”she said.

Even a quick reopening might not solve the problem, she added. Labor markets have been surprisingly tight for in-person, relatively low-paying jobs like the ones Canton Chair Rental relies on to manage and deliver its huge inventory of event supplies.

“If they come back and people go crazy [with events]”Said Maloney,” will I be able to recruit the people I need to provide these services?

Forty-four percent of respondents were worried about inflation, a large increase from the fourth quarter of 2020, while 24% had this concern. The most common inflation risk factor was labor costs. The possibility of an increase in the minimum wage could make matters even more complicated, Maloney added.

Meanwhile, some organizations are wondering how the pandemic has altered their trajectory in the years to come. Almost half of the respondents reported a moderate or severe negative impact of the pandemic.

Jill Berkemeier, CPA, CGMA, is the Chief Financial Officer and Vice President of Administration of the Cincinnati Museum Center. The nonprofit goes back over 200 years, and Berkemeier is confident that the cultural institution will survive the pandemic – but the question is how long the hangover will last.

“We have a long heritage,” she said. “We are doing everything we can to minimize the long-term impact. “

Like other sites, the center has faced an extreme drop in revenue due to public health restrictions. Berkemeier said the museum has cut staff costs by 40% by eliminating 175 positions and cutting salaries across the organization.

“We have eliminated all non-essential expenses and we are still losing millions,” Berkemeier said. “We are doing everything possible to minimize blood loss.”

The museum was supported by a PPP loan. Donors have stepped up and Berkemeier is hoping for a Shuttered Venue Operators grant from the recent federal stimulus package, which was adopted by the United States House of Representatives but still has to pass the Senate. She still expects a loss of $ 3 million for this fiscal year and a loss of about $ 20 million in earned income overall.

Before the pandemic struck, the nonprofit was celebrating the recent completion of a $ 244 million restoration of its campus, the historic Cincinnati Union Terminal. Now Berkemeier’s biggest concerns are how much debt and how much endowment it will take to survive.

She expects the rebound to take up to three years.

“The fact that there is a vaccine and that we have target dates to plan for the future is helpful,” Berkemeier said. “It’s something we haven’t had for a year. There were so many unknowns.

Across the country, sweeping changes caused by the pandemic and the U.S. election have made it difficult to predict what will happen next.

In Washington, DC, Carolyn Mollen, CPA, is vice president of finance and administration for the nonprofit Resources for the Future, which conducts non-partisan environmental and energy research. President Joe Biden’s administration is likely to provide new funding and support for renewables and climate change mitigation, but Mollen is not yet counting on that.

“It’s a really interesting riddle. We need to do a lot more scenario planning. We feel this optimism and this potential, especially for our organization and our industry. But that potential has not yet been realized, ”she said, adding that she was not speaking on behalf of her employer.

Mollen hopes the pandemic has led to a new awareness: its unprecedented nature has forced people to think about other global threats, such as climate change.

“It has put a renewed emphasis on why we need to focus on these things in advance,” she said. “The COVID disruption made us all realize that things can really change. “

Other highlights from the survey:

• Optimism about the global economy is also on the rise. In the last quarter, 26.9% of those polled said they were optimistic about the global economy. This quarter, 36.5% were optimistic.
• Both revenue and profit expectations increased for the third consecutive quarter. Specifically, respondents expect a 3% increase in income for the next 12 months and an increase in profits of 1.9%. Respondents predicted lower revenues and profits in the second and third quarters of last year.
• 53% of organizations report having the right number of employees, two percentage points more than in the previous quarter. Only 7% say they have too many workers, down from 11% in the previous quarter.